Families Are Not As Confident About Their Finances

In comparison to a year ago, households' expectations for the future and their current financial status are less favorable, as per the August 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data. The broad assessment of the state of credit generally and the expectations for future conditions declined.

In the last year, households have indicated that it is more difficult to qualify for credit, and they anticipate that this trend will continue in the upcoming year. Over the following three months, the likelihood of skipping a debt payment decreased by almost 0.5% to 11.1%. However, families only anticipate a 0.1% to 2.9% increase in incomes over the coming year a figure that has stayed largely consistent since September 2021.

According to the study, slightly over 30% of participants predicted that the average interest rate on savings accounts would rise in the next 12 months, representing a 0.8% decline. While estimates about how the situation could appear in a year were primarily unchanged, perceptions about households' existing financial problems also deteriorated from the previous year.

The study also revealed that there is actual concern about losing one's job, as it increased by 2% to 13.8%, the highest level since April 2021, while expectations for income growth fell to 2.9%, the lowest level since July 2021. The likelihood of quitting a job willingly rose from 1.9% to 18.9%, whereas the likelihood of obtaining a new position in the event of a job loss decreased by only 0.1% to 55.7%.

The outlook for inflation was mainly unchanged, with modest increases to 3.6% and 3.0% in the short and longer terms, respectively, and a slight decline to 2.8% at the medium term.